During an afternoon session on Nov. 30 of the CFGA’s 14th Annual Conference, Aaron Goertzen from BMO Capital Markets presented a Canadian economic outlook with a focus on current conditions and a look at the future.  

Aaron explained that inflation in Canada was coming through a high interest rate upcycle. That helped bring inflation lower than it was the previous year, but it still needed to come down to two per cent. Economists expected to see a drop in inflation from eight to nine per cent down to three or four per cent which was happening, but it was more challenging to get to two per cent. 
 
He added that the Canadian economy was showing signs of softening which is good for bringing down inflation. However, the U.S. economy was incredibly strong, making it difficult to get inflation back to target on both sides of the border.  
 
Other highlights from Aaron’s talk included that: 

• The economy had stayed resilient so far, with growth staying positive. The Canadian and U.S. economy held on pretty well while interest rates began to rise initially, mostly due to pandemic savings, pent-up demand and consumers holding up.  
• Unemployment rates were rising from extreme lows post pandemic, with the labour market on both sides of the border being strong at the time of the conference. A tight labour market for employer and central banks means upward pressure on wage growth and upward pressure on inflation. 
• Substantial progress was made to bring total inflation down in Canada from over eight per cent in the middle of 2022 to just over three per cent in December 2023. Less progress had been made on core inflation. There was still above-normal pricing pressure for a lot of consumer prices. 
• Inflation remained persistent because of a strong economy and strong demand, including the fact that there was no longer a supply chain issue. 
• The Canadian economy is starting to soften and inflation is moving in the right direction. He noted that it can take a couple years for changes in interest rates to have their full impact on the economy and that rate cuts were probably not coming too soon. 

2023 conference recordings  
To hear all of Aaron’s presentation, you can purchase access to it and all of the recordings from the 2023 conference proceedings. Note, if you attended the 2023 conference, the recordings are available for free to those who registered for the conference. For more information, email [email protected]. 

2024 annual conference   

We’re heading to Guelph, Ontario Dec. 3 to 7 for the Canadian Forage and Grassland Association’s (CFGA) 15th annual conference. The CFGA is excited to partner with the Ontario Forage Council on this not-to-be-missed event that will celebrate the important environmental and economic role forages and grasslands play in Ontario, across the country and around the globe.  
 
This year’s theme is Roots to Success: The Foundation of Resilient Agriculture. During this not-to-be-missed three-day event, we will learn about exciting and cutting-edge happenings in the forage sector and gain valuable information and inspiration for anyone involved in the forage and grassland sectors across the country. Visit the conference website for more details.